However, there remain some downside risks to the International and domestic economy which are discussed further in the Library’s Pre-Budget Economic Outlook AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver has suggested that corporate tax receipts could be $2 to $4 billion higher in 2018-19. Recent commentary has suggested that higher than expected iron prices, partly due to the collapse of the Vale tailings dam in Brazil, may lead to increased corporate tax receipts in the short term, providing the Government with scope to forecast higher surpluses or announce larger than anticipated tax cuts. It has been speculated that these unannounced measures are further personal income tax cuts, to be revealed in the Budget. As the Parliamentary Library has previously noted the MYEFO included just over $10 billion worth of policy decisions taken by the Government which have not yet been announced. The Budget is also likely to contain some significant policy announcements. The 2019-20 MYEFO forecast a return to surplus in 2019-20 with Commonwealth net debt forecast to have peaked (as a proportion of GDP) in 2017-18. The Budget is likely to reconfirm an improvement in the Commonwealth’s fiscal position.
With the federal election expected to be called shortly after the Budget on 2 April 2019, the Budget will form a significant part of the Government’s economic strategy and its policy platform for the election.
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